Is the market changing? Yes.
Phewf.
Now that we have that out of the way, let’s discuss the market, stats and some of the headlines out there. When a market adjusts from an unprecedented market, is the new market plunging or is it adjusting back to a more healthy balance? That is the statistical million dollar question.
Caveat time: We are not in the business of forecasting or giving the ol’ economic magic ball a whirl so please know that up front.
One interesting point though that we don’t hear people discussing is that 2017 is being compared to 2016 which was a year with previously unseen growth and activity.
For example, have a look at these numbers for St.Catharines to the end of July YTD for that last 5 years:
Total Sales
2013 1,127 sales
2014 1,142 sales
2015 1,363 sales
2016 1,505 sales
2017 1,492 sales
Average Sale Price
2013 $230,000
2014 $241,000
2015 $256,000
2016 $286,000
2017 $367,000
Some other interesting stats include:
Niagara Falls –detached
Sales from May 1 – July 31
2017
346 sales
Avg ask $404,000
Avg sell $405,000
2016
483 sales
Avg ask $343,000
Avg sell $342,000
2015
357 sales
Avg ask $279,000
Avg sell $272,000
Welland –detached
Sales from May 1 – July 31
2017
228 sales
Avg ask $302,000
Avg sell $308,000
2016
282 sales
Avg ask $247,000
Avg sell $245,000
2015
222 sales
Avg ask $233,000
Avg sell $226,000
Fonthill –detached
Sales from May 1 – July 31
2017
76 sales
Avg ask $576,000
Avg sell $585,000
2016
93 sales
Avg ask $503,000
Avg sell $495,000
2015
79 sales
Avg ask $444,000
Avg sell $435,000
Fort Erie –detached
Sales from May 1 – July 31
2017
168 sales
Avg ask $339,000
Avg sell $332,000
2016
268 sales
Avg ask $278,000
Avg sell $272,000
2015
240 sales
Avg ask $233,000
Avg sell $223,000
Notice a trend? (…aside from Fort Erie’s sales totals)
Our expectation is that the trend will continue as the market settles down but again, that is looking only at 2017. It will be interesting to watch trends looking at 24 to 36 month (and more) cycles and how the market reacts.
Human tendency from birth is to pull back and hesitate when change surprises them. The market seemed to be riding a wave of “wow! Look at all this craziness!” for the last few years and now that the craziness is being replaced with a new set of feelings, there is a collective pause happening as people figure out what to do next.
Which for the record is one of the reasons why so much of our local market was starved for inventory in early 2016. The market took such a seismic and quick shift that a lot of our local population was stunned into inaction as they tried to figure out what to do next.
Bottom line: markets change and the people in them react and adjust. For all of the people out there who were heard to say “the prices are up but now where are we going to move to?” there is a new strategy required.
Every market has ways to navigate it to make sense and get from A to B. The key is having a plan and someone to help take the right steps.
If you’d like to chat about the market or real estate in general, please feel free to reach out. We’re ready when you are.
Thank-you for visiting.
Photo credit belongs to Stepan Babanin
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